SurveyUSA for Roll Call (9/1-2, likely voters):
Judy Baker (D): 38
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 50
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Not exactly thrilling numbers, especially compared to the recent Momentum Analysis internal poll which showed Baker leading by two points in this R+6.5 open seat race. One tidbit leaves me a bit skeptical: McGramps is leading Obama by a 61-36 margin in this district. While I certainly don’t think that Obama will be neck-and-neck with McCain in this district, I would have expected him to be at least running even with John “The Haunted Tree” Kerry’s 2004 performance (he lost this district by 59-41).
I’ll have to wait until SUSA releases the full crosstabs in the morning for further comment, though.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
UPDATE: Crosstabs are here. At first glance, nothing strikes me as immediately off.
Im happy to finally see a non-partisan poll on this race. I dont care what party/group puts them out partisan polls can not be trusted and the Momentum Analysis internal poll is a good example why.
Also have to love the other new Survey USA Poll
AL-2
Jay Love (R) 56%
Bobby Bright (D) 39%
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
This doesn’t surprise me though. MO definitely is in a weird spot electorally. Dems seem to be having a hard time up and down the ballot. I’d be interested in seeing where Nixon is at. I’m not saying Judy Baker can’t pull this one out but unless the numbers tighten up in the next month, right this one off.
but something smells fishy.
SUSA has consistently shown odd numbers on the youth vote. Nationally we are getting numbers showing Obama up 20-40 points amongst people under 35. And yet SUSA usually shows things way different, like McCain winning youth in places like MN, which is absurd.
Beyond that though, Missouri seems to be one of the few swing states where Obama has had extra trouble, unlike places like Iowa and Virginia and North Carolina where he is doing better than expected. Does anyone know why?
To do as well as Kerry here?
the two day poll. It was the biggest rally McCain has had all year, as it was one of the first where he rolled out Palin as Vice-President.
The Republicans had tons of earned media over this event and Blaine Luetkemeyer and Kenny Hulshof were featured speakers on stage with McCain and Palin.
I have to say that the timing of this poll wasn’t ideal for us.
If there can be convention bumps, I imagine there can almost certainly be rally bumps locally especially in areas where a campaign rally is a major event and gets a great deal of local media coverage.
This I think would explain both why Obama undeperformed Kerry in the poll and why Luetkemeyer was better known than Baker in the poll. Luetkemeyer’s name was still fresh from television appearances and press coverage the day before.
I would expect the Republican brand to get a nice bubble the day after 14,000-23,000 people showed up to see McCain roll out Palin in a 9th District community.
And Luetkemeyer sharing the stage and getting speaking time with McCain, Palin, Bond and Hulshof probably helped his standing the day after.
If this poll had been conducted the day after Obama was in the district drawing large crowds and Baker was speaking on stage and getting free earned media on stage with Obama, Biden, McCaskill, Gephardt, Nixon, Volkmer etc. I suspect the results might be different.
Here is more on the rally:
http://www.emissourian.com/sit…
“As part of the build up to McCain’s speech, the crowd heard from Sen. Kit Bond, Gov. Matt Blunt, former Sen. Jim Talent, Republican gubernatorial candidate Kenny Hulshof and Republican 9th District congressional candidate Blaine Luetkemeyer.”
On a different note I see Baker has a large lead among moderates in the crosstabs. It’s also hard to believe only 2% are undecided at this point given the low name recognition of both candidates at this point, and that 10% are choosing another candidate (I think the only other candidate in the race is Libertarian Tamara Millay).
Just can trust SUSA anymore